We are an informal group of Czech citizens based in Prague, and this paper outlines our perspective on the proposed use of F-35 fighter jets as a means to support Ukraine, both in negotiations and in practical implementation. While the idea might currently seem like a distant dream, recent years have repeatedly demonstrated that ambitious, innovative concepts can indeed become reality. Below, we present a practical scenario to illustrate how the deployment of F-35s over Ukraine could be achieved.
End 2024 situation – new USA administration preparing for negotiating end of russian agression
Release Note: This article is being written at the end of 2024, during a pivotal moment as the incoming U.S. administration under Donald Trump seeks to address Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. In the analysis below, we examine how fifth-generation fighter aircraft could play a role in negotiations and practical strategies to counteract Russia’s genocidal aggression.
The F-35’s overall design offers a combination of exceptional efficiency, formidable deterrent capability, and operational safety. This is underscored by the demonstrated ineffectiveness of Russian air defenses, as evidenced during the F-35’s successful deployment in Israeli strikes on Iranian air defense systems and missile facilities.
Our other work: we have dedicated majority of 2024 analysing Estonian plan for Ukraine and possibilities of European march for Ukraine.
F-35 Over Ukraine: A Game-Changer for Protection and Peace Talks.
The deployment of F-35 fighter jets over Ukraine could significantly shift the dynamics of the ongoing russian agression. As a cutting-edge multi-role stealth aircraft, the F-35 offers a variety of strategic advantages in protecting Ukrainian civilians and military assets:
1. Air Superiority: The F-35’s advanced stealth and sensor capabilities allow it to establish dominance in the skies, neutralizing Russian air threats and providing critical protection for Ukrainian airspace.
2. Precision Strikes: With its precision-guided munitions, the F-35 could effectively target key Russian infrastructure, command centers, and missile launchers, disrupting enemy operations and reducing the impact on Ukrainian civilians.
3. Surveillance and Intelligence: The F-35’s sophisticated sensors provide real-time intelligence, enhancing the Ukrainian military’s situational awareness and allowing for more precise defensive and offensive strategies.
4. Deterrence: The presence of F-35s would send a powerful message to Russia, deterring further escalation and signaling strong Western support for Ukraine’s sovereignty.
5. Humanitarian Protection: With advanced capabilities in defense, the F-35 can help safeguard humanitarian needs and civilian zones, providing a safer environment for Ukrainian population.
Peace Talks Potential: The introduction of F-35s could also serve as a catalyst for diplomatic negotiations. The strategic shift in air capabilities may prompt russia to reconsider the costs of continued conflict, leading to a stronger position for Ukraine in peace talks and encouraging russia to de-escalate in the face of such advanced deterrence.
In summary, F-35s over Ukraine could be a force multiplier in defense, while also laying the groundwork for a more balanced and effective dialogue with russian terrorist leaders and force them towards peace.
Practical deployment of F-35 assisting Ukraine, realistic option with aircraft carrier in Baltic sea?
The deployment of F-35 Lightning II advanced fighter jets to protect Ukraine from ongoing Russian aggression represents a strategic military option to bolster Ukrainian defense capabilities. These aircraft, with their unparalleled stealth, precision, and electronic warfare capabilities, could be stationed aboard a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Baltic Sea, creating a potent forward-operating base. This approach minimizes retaliation risks by utilizing operations directly from U.S. assets and strategically positioning tanker airfields in safer, more distant locations away from Russian bases.
Deployment Strategy for F-35 flying from Baltic sea to assist Ukraine:
- Base of Operations:
- The USS Gerald R. Ford-class or equivalent U.S. aircraft carrier would serve as a mobile airbase in the Baltic Sea. The carrier’s proximity to Eastern Europe would enable rapid sortie deployment, ensuring consistent air support for Ukraine without requiring permanent basing in hostile territory.
- Airborne Operations:
- F-35 Missions: F-35s would be tasked with various missions, including air superiority, close air support, precision strikes on high-value targets, and electronic warfare to disrupt Russian communication and radar networks.
- NATO Integration: F-35s could operate in coordination with NATO forces to provide a unified front, offering both defensive coverage for NATO’s eastern flank and offensive capabilities in contested regions.
- Logistical Support:
- Stratotankers from allied country: Aerial refueling would be critical for sustained operations. KC-135 or KC-46 Stratotankers stationed at some more distant European airbases would extend the operational range of F-35s.
- Interoperability: Refueling sorties would require careful coordination with NATO air command, leveraging European airspace and allied air traffic management systems.
- Political and Operational Considerations:
- Legal Framework: Deployment would require consultation and alignment with NATO allies, balancing collective defense under Article 5 and support for Ukraine.
- Deterrence Signal: The presence of F-35s near Russian borders sends a strong deterrence message, showcasing advanced Western technology and commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty.
- Minimizing Escalation Risks: The mission parameters must be carefully crafted to avoid escalation into direct NATO-Russia conflict while maintaining operational effectiveness.
- Challenges and Risks:
- Baltic Sea Dynamics: Operating an aircraft carrier in the relatively confined and heavily monitored Baltic Sea involves risks, including vulnerability to Russian anti-ship missiles and submarines.
- Air Superiority Contests: Russian air defense systems and advanced fighters would still pose some challenges, requiring robust electronic warfare support and careful mission planning.
- Outcomes and Benefits:
- Enhanced Ukrainian Defense: F-35s would significantly boost Ukraine’s ability to repel aggressions, counter aerial threats, and conduct precision strikes.
- NATO Unity and Deterrence: Strengthened NATO cohesion and readiness in the region, reinforcing the alliance’s commitment to collective defense and regional stability.
Summary of advantages
Key aspect of F-35 deployment is to minimise risks of russian retaliatory moves and therefore enabling political feasibility of the plan.
- Deploying the F-35 from U.S. aircraft carriers minimizes the risk of Russian retaliation against specific European targets, such as airfields.
- Logistical support from some Nordic European airfield offers strategic advantages due to its remote location and the political feasibility afforded by the resilience and stability of Nordic countries.
The key factor lies in the U.S. leadership’s willingness to fully explore this option. The new administration appears committed to fulfilling its promises, ending the war swiftly, and distinguishing itself from the previous administration. This approach also provides an opportunity to showcase the F-35’s capabilities during a period of heightened procurement activity among EU allies.